I watched a few minutes of the Democratic convention last night -- it was about all I could take before getting bored. But I noticed that they were making a definite point of equating McCain to a continuation of Bush's administration. Phrases like "Bush/McCain" were bandied about. Of course, they are "preaching to the (Democratic) choir" as it were. But, will this work with the larger population? I'm not so sure. Voters must like Bush. After the first 4 years of being in the White House and showing the public what he was all about, Bush did better in the 2004 election than he did in '00.
McCain is apparently not popular with the conservative wing of the Republican Party. If the Democrats can convince voters that McCain is just like Bush, I'd think McCain would win.